Forbes recently posted the article “Holiday Retail Sales 2025: U.S. Shoppers Expected To Pull Back” that puts a microscope on how holiday season sales might impact your medical spa. Expert forecasts suggest a slower growth rate for holiday retail sales this year (2025) compared to the previous season, as consumers contend with inflation and economic uncertainty.
Key Forecasts and Economic Context
- Deloitte projects holiday retail sales to grow between 2.9% and 3.4%, totaling $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion. This is down from the previous season’s 4.2% growth ($1.57 trillion total).
- Bain forecasts “healthy but below-average” 4.0% growth, noting it’s below the 10-year average of 5.2%. The firm points to mixed economic signals: strong market/wage growth offset by falling consumer confidence and rising credit delinquencies.
- A PwC survey indicates U.S. consumers plan to spend 5% less on seasonal purchases compared to 2024, the biggest drop in five years. Overall, 84% of consumers expect to cut back over the next six months due to rising prices and cost of living.
E-Commerce Remains a Bright Spot
While overall growth slows, e-commerce is expected to remain strong, driven by consumers seeking online deals to maximize their spending power:
- Deloitte predicts e-commerce sales will grow 7% to 9%, reaching $305 billion to $310.7 billion.
- The PwC survey found near channel parity for the first time: 51% of consumers plan to shop online (like Amazon) vs. 53% who plan to shop in person.
- EMARKETER forecasts mobile commerce will account for 56.5% of total U.S. holiday retail e-commerce sales.
Generational Divide in Spending
Consumers are tightening their belts, with an average spending plan of $1,552 per person (down 5% year-over-year), but the impact varies significantly by generation:
| Generation | Spending Change (vs. Last Year) | Focus | Note |
| Gen Z | 23% less (biggest cutback) | Self-gifting (39% of budget) | Influenced by a tough job market and limited savings. Also shows preference for resale/upcycled goods. |
| Millennials | About the same | Spending on others (62%) | Steady spending plans. |
| Baby Boomers | 5% more | Spending on others (67%) | The only generation planning to increase spending. |
Focus on Value and Retailer Strategy
The core theme for 2025 holiday purchases is value:
- 78% of consumers will look for less expensive alternatives, and 53% say price increases will affect their spending decisions.
- Gift cards are a popular choice for budget-conscious shoppers.
- Consumers plan to spend slightly more (+1%) on travel and entertainment compared to gifts.
Retailer Recommendations
- Bain advises retailers to capitalize on sale events like Black Friday/Cyber Monday, utilize Key Value Item (KVI) pricing, and stress value over price.
- Experts emphasize that even when focusing on deals, retailers must not sacrifice the customer experience (e.g., timely, personalized promotions and “warm, human experiences”).
- Despite economic worries, PwC notes that for many, the intent to maintain a sense of normalcy holds firm, signaling a desire for “retail therapy” and preserving holiday traditions.
What Does This Mean For YOU?
CC Exclusive Analysis: Although holiday spending won’t completely tank, it is predicted to be healthy but below average. The core theme for holiday purchases is value, so be sure to start putting those packages together that provide monetary value, or consider offering gifts with purchase to really drive home the value of shopping with your medical spa. Be sure to spread the word on why your holiday sales and gift cards offer an incredible value above and beyond other beauty offerings, and drive home ways you are offering savings to your med spa consumers this holiday season. Keeping your eye on the prize, and your expectations realistic, will keep you in the cash this holiday season!
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